Microsoft’s Defeat and the Evolving Mobile Operating System War

  Well, as predicted 3 months ago here, the Microsoft-Yahoo deal is off.  It just made no sense, and despite threats of taking the deal into a proxy fight, Redmond backed down.  So much for the “hostile” side of the proposed takeover.  To be fair, it would be hard for that 900-pound gorilla to force its way, and not look like a total monopoly.
Still, the aborted attempt is enough for Microsoft’s board to consider a change in the leadership, and try to produce some kind of innovation with its assets...
 
As far as mobile goes, unless Redmond wants to risk mobile extinction at the hands of Blackberry and Apple, Windows Mobile (WM)7 should now attempt some very slick things, and not just another incremental upgrade.
(Especially given Apple’s impending enterprise push)
 
If you just look at Palm, WM, Blackberry, and Symbian, and look at where they’ve been and where they’re going, you can see what Apple is doing, and how the new SDK fits in.
So far Symbian and proprietary OSs dominate the consumer space.  Palm is trying to hang in there, but they will probably be acquired soon.  And Symbian has had minimal impact in the USA.
So, Apple started out in the space with something that combined 2 things it does very well: UI and music player.  Oh, and they threw in a phone with some cool features (visual voicemail...).  It was an excellent start in a market where they could and should leverage their strengths.
 
When you look at the enterprise marketplace, there is clearly an opening for Apple where the incumbents (WM and Blackberry) don’t yet compete very well: a productivity phone which is easy to deploy and support, and is intuitive and enjoyable to pick up and use.  (I mean, WM for a small business is a nightmare to support!  I’ve seen that first hand, and eventually jumped ship.)
Blackberry has it much better, and their Pearl and Curve lines are mainstreaming their phones.  The Pearl is the first rock solid business phone (QWERTY keyboard, email, etc.) that acknowledges that the user may actually want to listen to high quality music or snap a decent picture, and not have to use a holster to carry it around.  I don’t doubt that RIM could sortie a nice touch-screen phone, and so the real battle on the business side will be between RIM and Apple, with Microsoft probably losing share.
 
The notion, however, that Apple will somehow dominate the consumer or enterprise market within the next 5 years is pure nonsense.  Neither RIM nor Nokia will stand by to see their core business eroded without a fight, and for now the i-Phone represents only a small niche of the entire market.

Next: On Yahoo's mobile program...

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